Premium
The edge over the market clears the threshold. These are the picks that count in the public record.
Method
How it works
A statistical model makes every pick with the same rules every day. Nobody hand-picks matches.
From data to pick
- 1
Data
Thousands of ATP, Challenger and men's ITF matches: results, serve and return stats, surface and each player's recent form.
- 2
Model
From that data it estimates the probability of each outcome: match winner, set score, total games and game handicap.
- 3
Market
It compares that probability with the odds from several bookmakers. If the model sees more chance than the odds pay for, there is value.
- 4
Decision
If the edge clears the set threshold and the odds are in range, the pick is Premium. Otherwise it stays as a match read.
Three kinds of read
Value
There is an edge, but a smaller one. Available as analysis; it does not count in the Premium record.
No value
The market already reflects what the model sees. The match is explained, with no bet recommended.
What every pick includes
- Market and selection, published before the match starts.
- Reference odds and minimum odds: below the minimum the pick is no longer worth it.
- A 1-unit stake, the same for every Premium pick.
- A written match analysis and, once it ends, a review of the result.
How we count results
- Won: adds the odds minus 1. Lost: takes away 1 unit. Void: 0.
- Every Premium pick published counts, win or lose. None are deleted.
- The record starts in May 2026. Until 10 October it used the previous system, with variable stakes; since 11 October, the current model at 1 unit.
What we do not promise
A model with an edge still has losing runs. Past results do not guarantee future ones and odds move. Only stake what you can afford to lose. For adults 18+ only.
See today's pick.
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